Facebook Hype Will Fade

A great piece by Douglas Rushkoff, who correctly unveiled the reality behind the AOL - Time Warner merger not too long ago with his: Signs of the Times piece, and now is posting a similar opinion on Facebook.

These companies are being valued as if they will be our permanent means for identifying ourselves.

Very true. The valuation of these companies is a shot in the dark at best. We have a very limited view of the actual business: revenues, operating expenses and most importantly accounting principles that are being followed.

So it’s not that MySpace lost and Facebook won. It’s that MySpace won first, and Facebook won next. They’ll go down in the same order.

I do not think that Facebook is too big to fail, however it has grown at an astounding rate and depending on the definition of failure interpretations might vary. MySpace does appear to be in trouble. Whether the growth that Facebook has shown is sustainable, or will they begin to see users start to trickle away is the primary information that we are basing their success on. I feel this trickle will certainly occur, it depends on how big of a dip it is on their overall user base. Is user growth and the other limited information that we have provide enough information to accurately judge their success? I don’t think so.

Yet social media is itself as temporary as any social gathering, nightclub or party. It’s the people that matter, not the venue.

I do feel that social media is representative of a shift in our culture, but it often is over-hyped. However, I think that what many do not realize is that social media is in a lot of ways just another venue/market/stream. If we look at advertising expenditure, we can clearly see that the print sector has lost considerable revenue to online advertising. The questions we should be asking should focus on new business generation, new or increased advertising budgets and other factors such as an improved accessibility to advertising platforms and audiences for small and medium enterprises. If we have only seen a shift in advertising models, without an increase in expenditure, we have a stagnant market. I will leave you with his closing statement to contemplate:

The longer the company can maintain the illusion of great profits without alienating its user base, the longer they can delay the inevitable decline. But given that Facebook has already begun cashing in its chips, that moment has quite likely arrived.

Read the Full Article.

OS X 10.7 Possibility

Now that Apple has officially launched the Mac App Store, I have been speculating about what is next. My speculation is not on the next product or OS feature per se, but further speculation about the possibilities that the Mac App Store have in that regard.

The Store itself passed 1,000,000 downloads in the first day, and I concur withShawn Blancs postabout the Simplicity that Apple is bringing to the OS.

As I showed via the raw numbers in my previous post:Apples Historical 1st Days. Apple has a history of using technology to create easy-to-use markets/platforms. In regards to this post, and probably to Apple in general, the terms Usability and Simplicity can be interchanged.

Apple brought simplicity to the MP3 player. You cannot deny the simplicity and success of the iPod & iTunes combination.
Apple brought simplicity to the music purchasing arena. Just think about this: Prior to the iTunes Music Store, how could you possibly purchase only a single song from an album that was not released as a single?
Apple brought simplicity to the Phone & Mobile Software. This is not about if Apple was first or if Apple is Best. Apple made itSimple. It is that simplicity that has given them a large market share. My mom uses an iPhone, and I am sure you have non-technical friends and relatives who do so as well. The iOS App Store has puta lotof amazing apps into the hands of both the technical and non-technical alike, with a simplicity that is astounding when you really consider what is going on behind the scenes.

Apple now appears to be bringing that Simplicity to Mac OS X. AsShawnstates:

It used to be that buying and installing an app was a chore. But now, with the Mac App Store, its as simple as finding an app you want and clicking a button. Just like buying a song or renting a movie in iTunes. The whole experience is familiar, easy, and even a little bit fun.

I completely agree. What if Apple does not just stop there? What if they bring the simplicity of the Mac App Store to updating your OS between major releases? (i.e. 10.6 -> 10.7) What if OS X 10.7 could be purchased and downloaded via the Mac App Store?

Consider these items:

  • Applications that are available in the iOS Store and now the Mac App Store can easily be downloaded, installed, & updated across multiple computers.
  • Your iOS devices OS can be updated with relative ease and simplicity, even for major iOS releases.
  • Apple recently released theSoftware Reinstall Drivewith the MacBook Air. Further moving away from Optical Disc Technology, which is still the primary platform for OS distribution.

The primary drawback is an argument similar to other cloud computing services: if your Mac crashed, you had no backup or Software Reinstall Drive/Disc or Internet Access what do you do? Since your OS is nowin the cloudwaiting to be downloaded via the Mac App Store, it could be complicated. Presumably this is a marginal risk, but as opposed to just Applications, this is the core OS. Further, I feel that the Software Reinstall Drive will continue to be prioritized over Optical Discs, and hope that these drives will also be used for standard distribution of major OS releases, if the Mac App Store is not.

Overall I think that providing Major OS X Updates via the Mac App Store does bring simplicity for theeveryday Mac userwho appears to be the primary target audience of the Mac App Store. I hope to see 10.7 launched via the Mac App Store.

Apple's Historical 1st Days

iTunes Music Store - April 28, 2003 First 18 Hours - 275,000 Tracks Sold iPhone App Store - July 11, 2008 First 72 Hours - 10,000,000 Downloads Mac App Store - January 6, 2011 First 24 Hours - 1,000,000 Downloads (sources: Wikipedia, Apple PR, Apple PR)

Google Font API

One of the great products that came out in 2010 has to beGoogle Font Directory/API.

One of the most difficult parts of working in Web Design & Development has been the gap between fonts that arewebsafeand fonts that designers or worse, clients, want to use. For years, the solution has been to use images, flash or other workarounds todisplaythe font. Since fonts are based on the users installed fonts, just relying on installation base is not a good idea. While these past workarounds might achieve the desired look, the disadvantage to this approach is web usability and standards. For example if you have to design links/buttons in an image editor every time you want to change something on the site, it becomes a multi-step process, as opposed to just adjusting the text.

There have been solutions to this issue recently, including a promising offering fromTypekit. The technology and availability of these solutions is simply amazing, and it allows higher levels of web usability within the proven framework of web standards.

However, now that Google has stepped into the room, you can freely use any of the listed fonts that they have licensed freely. What does this mean? It means that we have come a long way from the old multi-step process to usestyled fontssimple on websites.

For a sample, check outhttps://sym.ph.

Symph -
https://sym.ph

A Quick Launch for a Cause

A Quick Launch for a Cause

So the New Year is here, and well I brought it in with the usual bang: Fireworks in the Philippines. I also had another bang, a quick launch of a project. I put together a website/social media/email campaign for a friend. She was recently diagnosed with cancer, and as she is a good friend an amazing friend, I wanted to set something up to help her. You can see the it here:Rally for Rhonda, and please consider Rallying around her through her fight with cancer.